At the end of October, the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) submitted its written evidence to the NHS Pay Review Body (PRB). The wording in this document is critical for all of us in the UK Civil Service, especially as we look at pay year 2026
The key passage from the DHSC submission states:
“DHSC have developed financial and delivery plans which currently allow for a pay uplift of 2.5% without having to make trade-offs against headline government health commitments. Should the independent pay review bodies recommend an award above this level, we would need to consider whether and how this could be made affordable from within existing DHSC budgets.”
This is a clear signal that the government wants to limit pay uplifts to just 2.5%.
Whilst the NHS is different to the UK civil service, it is a sector where a major union, the BMA, is already in dispute over pay restoration/jobs and another, the RCN may also soon move into a pay dispute.
So, Ministers are under pressure there, which they are in not in the UK civil service – the major union, PCS, having decided to opt for peace and hope for the best. So you would expect the submission to reflect this. And it does say ‘An engaged workforce is central to delivering government’s objectives for the NHS’. Yet it is recommending a cap on pay uplifts of 2.5%.
Indeed the submission says:
‘SR25 set departmental budgets for day-to-day spending until 2028/29. The Government has been clear in the SR that pay awards need to be funded in full from within these budgets and there will be no access to the reserve’.
The same will be said to PCS by the Cabinet Office in the so-called national talks. If, at the moment, the government won’t budge on the SR settlement in the NHS then they won’t in the UK civil service. The Cabinet Office may acknowledge problems with the current pay systems in the service but without extra cash they can’t fix those problems.
The Cabinet Office and the ‘Magic’ 2.5%
This figure is not an isolated incident. Civil Service World reports that the Cabinet Office, in its own evidence to the Senior Civil Service (SCS) Review Body, echoed the same sentiment:
“The government has considered these factors whilst carefully evaluating the overall affordability position and recommends that the total increase in paybill for the SCS should be no higher than 2.5%,”
The message is unmistakable: 2.5% is the government’s ceiling for next year’s pay increases across the public sector.
Is a Special Deal Likely?
The Left Unity (LU) leadership in PCS has often expressed hope about the potential of the national talks with the Cabinet Office to deliver a significant win for our members.
But let’s look at the facts. Given that the government is trying to hard cap pay at 2.5% for the NHS, and is enforcing the same limit for the SCS, do we really think it is likely that PCS will get a special deal, a better deal than the NHS?
The plain answer, from where we in the Independent Left (IL) stand, is No.
We must be realistic. The government tends to apply a consistent approach across the entire Civil Service and wider public sector. Furthermore, the decision by the current PCS leadership not to have a pay campaign this year—effectively giving up our industrial leverage—has significantly weakened our negotiating hand. Without the credible threat of industrial action, what pressure can be brought to bear to break the government’s 2.5% barrier?
Is 2.5% acceptable? The plain answer again is NO.
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